I pulled four charts this morning.
Euro against the Australian dollar. Pound against the Australian dollar. US dollar against the Australian dollar. New Zealand dollar against the Australian dollar.
Four different currencies. Four different economies. Four different central banks.
Same chart.
All four fell from January. All four bottomed in May. All four have clawed back a little since June.
When four unrelated currencies move in lockstep, it is not four stories. It is one.
The Australian dollar got stronger against everything.
What it cost
If you earn abroad and your life is in Australia, here is what six months did.
Pair | January | Now | Move |
EUR/AUD | 1.7550 | 1.6334 | -6.9% |
GBP/AUD | 2.0200 | 1.9275 | -4.6% |
USD/AUD | 1.5000 | 1.4285 | -4.8% |
NZD/AUD | 0.8620 | 0.8342 | -3.2% |
Percentages are easy to skim past. So here it is in money.
Earning | 100k | 500k | 1m |
Euros | -A$12,156 | -A$60,780 | -A$121,560 |
Pounds | -A$9,249 | -A$46,245 | -A$92,490 |
US dollars | -A$7,149 | -A$35,745 | -A$71,490 |
NZ dollars | -A$2,777 | -A$13,885 | -A$27,770 |
On a 500,000 euro contract, that is roughly sixty thousand Australian dollars.
Nothing changed about your deal. Nothing changed about your performance.
You converted in a different month.
EUR/AUD - Daily Chart
GBP/AUD - Daily Chart
NZD/AUD - Daily Chart
USD/AUD - Daily Chart
Why it happened
The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised rates three times this year. The cash rate sits at 4.35%.
The European Central Bank raised in June for the first time since 2023. It sits at 2.25%.
The Bank of England has held at 3.75%. The US Federal Reserve has held at 3.50 to 3.75%.
Australia moved first, moved hardest, and sits highest.
Money follows yield. That is the whole explanation.
Where it goes next
Westpac is forecasting further hikes this year.
CBA, NAB and ANZ are forecasting no more hikes at all.
Four Australian banks. Four economics departments. One central bank sitting in their own country.
They cannot agree.
So when someone tells you they know where the euro is heading, they are selling you something.
The part nobody tells you when you sign
Your contract is in one currency. Your life is in another.
That gap is a position. You are carrying all of it, for the full length of the deal.
Nobody asked if you wanted it. You did not choose it.
And you cannot train your way out of it.
Once the ink is dry, you are in that currency for three years.
The currency is locked at signature. The rate is not.
That second part is the bit you can still do something about.
If you are not Australian
The pairs change. The maths does not.
Naira, rupiah, yen, real, whatever home is for you. If you earn in one currency and live in another, you are running the same position.
The chart just has a different name on it.
Why now
The transfer window closes on 1 September.
If you are signing, renewing, or moving, the currency conversation happens before the deal is written. Not after.
That applies to agents too. Your commission is paid in the deal currency, in instalments, across years. Same position. Same exposure. Nobody mentions it.
What to do with this
Reply to this email. Tell me the currency, the amount, and roughly when you need it.
I will send you back the number today.
And if you are signing a new deal or moving clubs, talk to me before your first payment lands. That is the point where this is still cheap to fix.
Chris
Eleven years in athlete FX. Official currency partner to FIFPRO Asia/Oceania, the PFA and the RLPA.
Rates sourced from Saxo, 15 July 2026. This is general information about historical currency movements, not personal advice.